Oregon @ Ohio State

Sat, Nov 7 · Ohio Stadium · Unranked at No. 11

The line has it Ohio State 27, Oregon 20.Ohio State −7.5, total 46.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Oregon at Ohio State: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Oregon8 games	Ohio State8 games
	+2.0	+12.0
	−5.6	−10.5
	+24	+121
	−33	−97
	+0.1	+1.7
	+5.6	+41.9
	−7.0%	+3.8%
	+0.6	−0.4
	−9.9	−2.8
	−0.1	+0.1
	+0.5	0.0

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Ohio State

Ohio State has won 12 straight at home.streakthe runs →
Ohio State is 1.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 89th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Oregon

Oregon is 5.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 122nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Ohio State leads the series 10–2 since 1957.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Ohio State has beaten 9 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →
Ohio State has covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
Ohio State is 4–3 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without Devin McCuin, Ohio State’s pass attempts are 11.4 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since Julian Sayin’s last game, Ohio State’s points are 17.5 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since Ja'Kobi Jackson’s last game, Ohio State’s points are 11.4 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Oregon has won 8 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →
Since Dante Moore’s last game, Oregon’s penalty yards are 21.8 under expected in 5 games. A −49.7 difference in penalty yards over expected since Dante Moore’s last game vs with Dante Moore is unusual: shuffle which games were since Dante Moore’s last game and it comes up 4 times in 100.thinwithout him →
Without Dylan Raiola, Oregon’s passing yards are 47.8 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Against a ranked opponent, Oregon’s passing yards are 82.3 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Jan 1, 2025	neutral	Ohio State 41, Oregon 21
Oct 12, 2024	at Oregon	Oregon 32, Ohio State 31
Sep 11, 2021	at Ohio State	Oregon 35, Ohio State 28
Jan 12, 2015	neutral	Ohio State 42, Oregon 20
Jan 1, 2010	neutral	Ohio State 26, Oregon 17
Sep 19, 1987	at Ohio State	Ohio State 24, Oregon 14
Sep 10, 1983	at Ohio State	Ohio State 31, Oregon 6
Oct 5, 1968	at Ohio State	Ohio State 21, Oregon 6
Oct 7, 1967	at Oregon	Ohio State 30, Oregon 0
Nov 17, 1962	at Ohio State	Ohio State 26, Oregon 7

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.