Putting Up Numbers· college football

Minnesota @ Indiana

Sat, Oct 31, 2026 · Unranked at No. 4

Indiana 23, Minnesota 16Indiana was favored by 20.5, and Minnesota covered.

Minnesota at Indiana: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameMinnesota1 gameIndiana1 game
Points+0.3−2.8
Points allowed−8.4−6.6
Total offense, yards−98+72
Total defense, yards+19−100
Touchdowns−0.8−1.1
Passer rating−39.5−9.3
Third downs−16.9%−21.9%
Sacks+0.5+2.3
Penalty yards+7.0−6.1
Turnovers forced−0.3−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.2−0.4

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Indiana

Minnesota

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Indiana

  • Indiana had beaten 28 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 29.
  • Indiana had won 8 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • Indiana was 3.4 points a game under the closing line this season, 107th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−13.5 against the line this game.

Minnesota

  • Minnesota was 0.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 64th of 136, and 13.2 worse away than at home over its last 25, 131st of 136.fact · rankedits form →+13.5 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • Indiana had won 9 of its last 10.countits form →Now 10 of 11.
  • Indiana had won 9 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 10 of 11.
  • Indiana had failed to cover 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Indiana was 1–6 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • Minnesota had covered 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Minnesota had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Minnesota was 3–1 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Covered.
  • Against a ranked opponent, Minnesota’s points allowed were 15.9 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.5 under expected.
  • On the road, Minnesota’s carries were 8.6 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.7 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 31, 2026at IndianaIndiana 23, Minnesota 16
Nov 20, 2021at IndianaMinnesota 35, Indiana 14
Oct 26, 2018at MinnesotaMinnesota 38, Indiana 31
Nov 2, 2013at IndianaMinnesota 42, Indiana 39
Oct 4, 2008at MinnesotaMinnesota 16, Indiana 7
Oct 6, 2007at IndianaIndiana 40, Minnesota 20
Nov 4, 2006at MinnesotaMinnesota 63, Indiana 26
Nov 5, 2005at IndianaMinnesota 42, Indiana 21
Oct 30, 2004at IndianaIndiana 30, Minnesota 21
Nov 1, 2003at MinnesotaMinnesota 55, Indiana 7

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.