Michigan @ Rutgers

Sat, Oct 31, 2026

Michigan 28, Rutgers 21Michigan was favored by 16.5, and Rutgers covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Rutgers’ passing yards were 122.2 lower vs a ranked opponent than vs an unranked opponent against expected over its last 25 games, 75th of 75 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 99.9 under expected.
Rutgers was 4.8 points a game under the closing line this season, 115th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+9.5 against the line this game.

Michigan was 4.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 118th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−9.5 against the line this game.

Michigan leads the series 10–1 since 2014. Michigan has won the last 10.seriesevery meeting →

Rutgers had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Rutgers was 2–3 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Covered.
At home, Rutgers’ rushing yards were 68.2 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.2 over expected.
Against an unranked opponent, Rutgers’ pass attempts were 6.5 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 18.8 under expected.
Michigan had beaten 8 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
Michigan was 1–4 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
On the road, Michigan’s total yards were 152.5 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 34.6 over expected.
Against an unranked opponent, Michigan’s carries were 5.4 under expected in 4 games. A −11.6 difference in carries over expected vs an unranked opponent and vs a ranked opponent is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were vs an unranked opponent and it comes up 6 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 8.0 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.