Rutgers’ passing yards vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Rutgers was 79.2 yards under vs a ranked opponent and 31.0 yards over vs an unranked opponent over its last 25 games, 6 games against 17. The plain averages are 153.5 and 270.3, a difference of 116.8. All 7 nonconference games were vs an unranked opponent.
Rutgers’ −110.2 vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 77th of the 77 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
passing yards a game over expected
A −110.2 difference in passing yards over expected vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up 2 times in 100.
A −116.8 difference in passing yards vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Minnesota | W | 240 | 186.3 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Maryland | W | 238 | 237.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Illinois | L | 174 | 247.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Michigan State | W | 157 | 226.0 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs Kansas State (neutral) | L | 237 | 214.9 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Ohio | W | 252 | 279.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) | W | 259 | 290.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 378 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | vs Iowa | L | 330 | 204.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Minnesota | L | 249 | 261.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | @ Washington | L | 386 | 229.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Oregon | L | 79 | 226.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 359 | 252.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Illinois | L | 253 | 246.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsMaryland | W | 229 | 269.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Ohio State | L | 81 | 210.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Penn State | L | 338 | 224.6 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs UMass | L | 319 | 218.2 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @ Boston College | L | 230 | 186.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs USC | L | 292 | 225.2 | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vsHHoward | W | 268 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Indiana | L | 195 | 218.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Maryland | W | 291 | 212.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 100 | 267.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Michigan | L | 123 | 223.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 2.3 in 2024, plus 1.8 in 2025, plus 4.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 72% in 2024, 68% in 2025, 59% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Norfolk State, Howard have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.