Rutgers @ Wisconsin

Sat, Nov 7 · Camp Randall Stadium

The line has it Wisconsin 31, Rutgers 15.Wisconsin −16.5, total 45.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Rutgers at Wisconsin: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Rutgers8 games	Wisconsin8 games
	−1.3	−0.7
	+11.8	−9.1
	+1	−35
	+97	−89
	+0.1	−0.2
	−3.8	−6.2
	−0.9%	+4.5%
	−1.0	+0.3
	−24.0	+5.9
	−0.7	+0.1
	+0.8	0.0

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin has won 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →
Wisconsin is 1.7 points a game over the closing line this season, 53rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Rutgers

Rutgers is 3.0 points a game under the closing line this season, 105th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Wisconsin leads the series 6–0 since 2014. Wisconsin has won the last 6.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Without Abu Sama III, Wisconsin’s points are 15.2 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Bryan Jackson II, Wisconsin’s pass attempts are 8.1 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
At home, Wisconsin’s third-down conversion rate are 13.2% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
Rutgers has lost 8 of its last 10.countits form →
Rutgers is 3–3 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Without AJ Surace, Rutgers’ pass attempts are 9.9 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Dylan Lonergan, Rutgers’ pass attempts are 8.2 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
On the road, Rutgers’ carries are 7.1 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Oct 12, 2024	at Rutgers	Wisconsin 42, Rutgers 7
Oct 7, 2023	at Wisconsin	Wisconsin 24, Rutgers 13
Nov 6, 2021	at Rutgers	Wisconsin 52, Rutgers 3
Nov 3, 2018	at Wisconsin	Wisconsin 31, Rutgers 17
Oct 31, 2015	at Wisconsin	Wisconsin 48, Rutgers 10
Nov 1, 2014	at Rutgers	Wisconsin 37, Rutgers 0

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.