Miami (FL) @ North Carolina

Sat, Oct 31, 2026 · No. 1 at unranked

Miami (FL) 38, North Carolina 35Miami (FL) was favored by 14, and North Carolina covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

North Carolina was 2.7 points a game over the closing line this season, 42nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+11.0 against the line this game.

Miami (FL) had won 6 straight on the road.streakthe runs →Extended to 7.
Miami (FL) had beaten 10 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 11.
Miami (FL) had won 7 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 8.
Miami (FL) had won 7 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Miami (FL) was 5.0 points a game over the closing line this season, 26th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−11.0 against the line this game.

North Carolina was 4–1 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Covered.
At night, North Carolina’s pass attempts were 16.7 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.6 under expected.
Against a ranked opponent, North Carolina’s carries were 9.0 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.3 over expected.
Against a top-10 opponent, North Carolina’s carries were 8.0 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.3 over expected.
Miami (FL) had covered 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Miami (FL) had won 7 of its last 10 by 10 or more.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
Miami (FL) was 5–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
On the road, Miami (FL)’s points allowed were 11.3 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 11.3 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.