North Carolina
4–4 · 2–3 ACC · Bill Belichick, 2nd season
Lost to Miami (FL) 38–35, Oct 31 · Next: at UConn, Sat, Nov 7 · analysis
Best by position: quarterbacks · running backs · wide receivers · tight ends · defenders · kickers · punters
Against the closing line
North Carolina has beaten the line in 3 of its last 4, by 4.1 points a game. Over the season it’s 3.8 a game over, 33rd of 136.
Of the 8 teams at 4–4 against a schedule this hard, North Carolina’s +3.8 is 1st.
last 4
+4.1
before
+3.4
010
Oct 10, 2026 @ Pittsburgh +7.5
Oct 17, 2026 @ Duke +7.0
Oct 24, 2026 vs Syracuse −9.0
Oct 31, 2026 vs Miami (FL) +11.0
Lately
- Lost 6 of its last 10count
- Nov 22, 2025 vs Duke −7
Nov 29, 2025 @ NC State −23
Aug 29 vs TCU +5
Sep 12 vs East Tennessee State +32
Sep 19 @ Clemson −8
Oct 3 vs Notre Dame −11- Oct 10 @ Pittsburgh +4
- Oct 17 @ Duke +4
- Oct 24 vs Syracuse −1
- Oct 31 vs Miami (FL) −3
- Covered 5 of its last 10count
- Nov 22, 2025 vs Duke 0
- Nov 29, 2025 @ NC State −16
- Aug 29 vs TCU +12.5
- Sep 12 vs East Tennessee State −4
- Sep 19 @ Clemson −5
- Oct 3 vs Notre Dame +10
- Oct 10 @ Pittsburgh +7.5
- Oct 17 @ Duke +7
- Oct 24 vs Syracuse −9
- Oct 31 vs Miami (FL) +11
- Covered 5 of its last 10 on the roadcount
Nov 23, 2024 @ Boston College −22
Sep 6, 2025 @ Charlotte +1
Sep 20, 2025 @ UCF −18
Oct 17, 2025 @ California +4.5- Oct 31, 2025 @ Syracuse +18.5
Nov 15, 2025 @ Wake Forest −12.5- Nov 29, 2025 @ NC State −16
- Sep 19 @ Clemson −5
- Oct 10 @ Pittsburgh +7.5
- Oct 17 @ Duke +7
Against expected,
| a game | offense | defense |
|---|---|---|
| Points | +2.8 · 47th | −3.5 · 41st |
| Total yards | −12 · 73rd | −2 · 68th |
| Touchdowns | +0.3 · 52nd | −0.4 · 46th |
| Passing efficiency | +8.9 · 45th | −1.7 · 62nd |
| 3rd downs | +5.0% · 34th | +3.9% · 103rd |
| Turnovers | +0.3 · 112th | −0.4 · 110th |
| Sacks | +0.3 · 98th | −0.3 · 92nd |
| Penalty yards | −24.1 · 4th |
Over (+) or under (−) what its opponents usually allow, a game, and where that stands among 136 teams, the best first. Lit is the top ten or the bottom ten. Penalty yards read against the league’s mean, since nobody allows them.
Seasons
- 2026 4–4
- 2025 4–8
- 2024 6–7
- 2023 8–5
- 2022 9–5
- 2021 6–7
- 2020 8–4
- 2019 7–6
- 2018 2–9
- 2017 3–9
- 2016 8–5
- 2015 11–3
- 2014 6–7
- 2013 7–6
- 2012 8–4
- 2011 7–6
- 2010 8–5
- 2009 0–5
- 2008 0–5
- 2007 4–8
- 2006 3–9
- 2005 5–6
- 2004 6–6
- 2003 2–10
- 2002 3–9
- 2001 8–5
- 2000 6–5
- 1999 3–8
- 1998 7–5
- 1997 11–1
- 1996 10–2
- 1995 7–5
- 1994 8–4
- 1993 10–3
- 1992 9–3
- 1991 7–4
- 1990 6–4–1
- 1989 1–10
- 1988 1–10
- 1987 5–6
- 1986 7–4–1
- 1985 5–6
- 1984 5–5–1
- 1983 8–4
- 1982 8–4
- 1981 10–2
- 1980 11–1
- 1979 8–3–1
- 1978 5–6
- 1977 8–3–1
- 1976 9–3
- 1975 3–7–1
- 1974 7–5
- 1973 4–7
- 1972 11–1
- 1971 9–3
- 1970 8–4
- 1969 5–5
- 1968 3–7
- 1967 2–8
- 1966 2–8
- 1965 4–6
- 1964 5–5
- 1963 9–2
- 1962 3–7
- 1961 5–5
- 1960 3–7
- 1959 5–5
- 1958 6–4
- 1957 6–4
- 1956 2–7–1
- 1955 3–7
- 1954 4–5–1
- 1953 4–6
- 1952 2–6
- 1951 2–8
- 1950 3–5–2
- 1949 7–4
- 1948 9–1–1
- 1947 8–2
- 1946 8–2–1
- 1945 5–5
- 1944 1–7–1
- 1943 6–3
- 1942 5–2–2
- 1941 3–7
- 1940 6–4
- 1939 8–1–1
- 1938 6–2–1
- 1937 7–1–1
- 1936 8–2
- 1935 8–1
- 1934 7–1–1
- 1933 4–5
- 1932 3–5–2
- 1931 4–3–3
- 1930 5–3–2
- 1929 9–1
- 1928 5–3–2
- 1927 4–6
- 1926 4–5
- 1925 7–1–1
- 1924 4–5
- 1923 5–3–1
- 1922 9–1
- 1921 5–2–2
- 1920 2–6
- 1919 4–3–1
- 1916 5–4
- 1915 4–3–1
- 1914 10–1
- 1913 5–4
- 1912 3–4–1
- 1911 6–1–1
- 1910 3–6
- 1909 5–2
- 1908 3–3–3
- 1907 4–4–1
- 1906 1–4–2
- 1905 4–3–1
- 1904 5–2–2
- 1903 6–3
- 1902 5–1–3
Method
- Against the line is each game’s points of margin less what the closing line expected, from College Football Streak King’s lines. A game nobody lined sits out, and a push hasn’t beaten it. Lately is the last 4 games with one.
- A schedule this hard means the mean rating of the opponents it’s played is within 5.2 points of the team’s, two thirds of a standard deviation of the league’s schedules, and a rating is what the season’s games say about a team’s margin against an average team. The teams beside it have its record.
- Against expected is each game against what the opponent usually gave up in its other games, with half the home edge, averaged. A game against a team with no other game here sits out.
- Passing efficiency is the NCAA’s passer rating. Turnovers on offense are the ones it lost, and on defense the ones it forced. Sacks on offense are the ones its quarterbacks took, and they start in 2024.