North Carolina @ UConn

Sat, Nov 7 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium

The line has it North Carolina 31, UConn 24.North Carolina −7, total 55, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

North Carolina at UConn: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	North Carolina8 games	UConn8 games
	+2.8	+4.4
	−3.5	+2.3
	−12	+26
	−2	+48
	+0.3	+0.7
	+8.9	+15.2
	+5.0%	−1.9%
	−0.3	−0.2
	−26.6	+13.7
	−0.4	−0.2
	+0.3	−0.5

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

UConn

UConn is 7.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 10th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

North Carolina

North Carolina is 3.8 points a game over the closing line this season, 33rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

The series is tied 1–1 since 1990.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

UConn has won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
UConn has covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
UConn is 2–3 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Without Kenji Christian, UConn’s pass attempts are 15.4 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
At home, UConn’s third-down conversion rate are 9.9% under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
Without Benjamin Hall, North Carolina’s pass attempts are 16.7 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Melkart Abou Jaoude, North Carolina’s rushing yards are 89.1 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
On the road, North Carolina’s passing yards are 39.8 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Dec 28, 2024	neutral	UConn 27, North Carolina 14
Sep 15, 1990	at North Carolina	North Carolina 48, UConn 21

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.