California @ NC State

Sat, Oct 31, 2026

NC State 31, California 10NC State was favored by 9.5, and NC State covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

NC State was 1.2 points a game under the closing line this season, 90th of 136, and 11.8 better at home than away over its last 25, 9th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+11.5 against the line this game.

California was 9.3 points a game under the closing line this season, 133rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →−11.5 against the line this game.

NC State leads the series 2–0 since 2024. NC State has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

NC State had won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
At home, NC State’s third-down conversion rate were 13.3% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.3% over expected.
In a conference game, NC State’s rushing yards were 49.4 under expected in 4 games. A −121.6 difference in rushing yards over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 8 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 29.2 under expected.
California had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
California was 2–5 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
On the road, California’s penalty yards were 50.6 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 17.6 over expected.

Date	Where	Score
Oct 31, 2026	at NC State	NC State 31, California 10
Oct 19, 2024	at California	NC State 24, California 23

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.