California @ Virginia

Sat, Nov 14 · Scott Stadium

No line yet.

California at Virginia: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	California9 games	Virginia9 games
	−6.2	−5.2
	+6.8	−3.7
	−39	−47
	+26	−41
	−1.0	−0.5
	−16.6	+6.0
	−3.0%	−10.7%
	−0.3	−0.1
	+28.1	−9.4
	−0.1	−0.5
	−0.3	−0.6

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Virginia

Virginia is 5.7 points a game under the closing line this season, 120th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

California

California’s total yards are 83.1 lower in a conference game than in a nonconference game against expected over its last 25 games, 133rd of 134 teams.fact · rankedthe split →
California is 9.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 135th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Virginia leads the series 1–0 since 2025.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Virginia has won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
Since Jekail Middlebrook’s last game, Virginia’s carries are 21.0 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
At home, Virginia’s carries are 10.1 over expected in 4 games. A +18.8 difference in carries over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 12 times in 100.thinthe split →
California has failed to cover 8 of its last 10.countits form →
California has lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Without Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, California’s pass attempts are 12.0 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Kingston Lopa, California’s points allowed are 13.5 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Ian Strong, California’s penalty yards are 26.5 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Nov 1, 2025	at California	Virginia 31, California 21

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.