Troy @ 
James Madison
Troy 24, James Madison 21James Madison was favored by 17.5, and Troy covered.
| a game | Troy1 game | James Madison1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | +4.1 | −8.1 |
| Points allowed | −15.3 | +3.7 |
| Total offense, yards | −14 | +31 |
| Total defense, yards | −26 | +1 |
| Touchdowns | −0.3 | −0.4 |
| Passer rating | −33.3 | −13.9 |
| Third downs | −11.4% | 0.0% |
| Sacks | +0.6 | +0.7 |
| Penalty yards | −15.4 | +15.7 |
| Turnovers forced | +3.8 | −0.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −0.3 | +3.8 |
Who put up numbers
James Madison
- Passing yardsCamden Coleman175 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsCamden Coleman2 passing touchdowns
- Rushing yardsSeth Cromwell135 rushing yards
Troy
Analysis
James Madison
- James Madison had covered 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- James Madison had won 11 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- James Madison was 10.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 6th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−20.5 against the line this game.
Troy
- Troy was 6.3 points a game under the closing line this season, 120th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+20.5 against the line this game.
The series
- James Madison leads the series 2–1 since 2023.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- James Madison had beaten 9 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
- James Madison had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- James Madison had covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- James Madison was 5–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
- At home, James Madison’s pass attempts were 6.5 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.3 over expected.
- At night, James Madison’s third-down conversion rate were 12.1% under expected in 4 games. A −23.5% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected at night vs by day is unusual: shuffle which games were at night and it comes up 3 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 1.6% under expected.
- In a conference game, James Madison’s points were 9.5 over expected in 5 games. A +16.2 difference in points over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 9 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 15.2 under expected.
- Troy had covered 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- In a conference game, Troy’s pass attempts were 7.6 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.1 under expected.
- On the road, Troy’s pass attempts were 6.0 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.1 under expected.
- At night, Troy’s third-down conversion rate were 5.9% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 10.7% under expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | at James Madison | Troy 24, James Madison 21 |
| Dec 5, 2025 | at James Madison | James Madison 31, Troy 14 |
| Sep 16, 2023 | at Troy | James Madison 16, Troy 14 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 28, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.