Sam Houston @ 
Missouri State
Missouri State 24, Sam Houston 3Missouri State was favored by 5, and Missouri State covered.
| a game | Sam Houston1 game | Missouri State1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | −28.3 | −5.3 |
| Points allowed | −1.6 | −15.6 |
| Total offense, yards | −138 | −73 |
| Total defense, yards | −61 | −35 |
| Touchdowns | −3.9 | −0.6 |
| Passer rating | −22.6 | +54.9 |
| Third downs | −6.1% | −2.9% |
| Sacks | +1.1 | +2.3 |
| Penalty yards | +23.7 | −0.7 |
| Turnovers forced | −1.2 | −0.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −0.2 | −1.2 |
Who put up numbers
Missouri State
- Passing yardsHenry Belin IV184 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsHenry Belin IV2 passing touchdowns
- Rushing yardsConnor Lair75 rushing yards
Sam Houston
Analysis
Missouri State
- Missouri State was 1.7 points a game under the closing line this season, 93rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+16.0 against the line this game.
Sam Houston
- Sam Houston had failed to cover 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
- Sam Houston had lost 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
- Sam Houston was 3.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 37th of 136, and 12.8 worse away than at home over its last 25, 129th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−16.0 against the line this game.
The series
- Missouri State leads the series 1–0 since 2026.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Missouri State had lost 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- Missouri State had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- At home, Missouri State’s penalty yards were 29.4 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.3 under expected.
- In a conference game, Missouri State’s pass attempts were 7.2 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 11.9 under expected.
- Against an unranked opponent, Missouri State’s passing yards were 56.4 over expected in 4 games. A +161.3 difference in passing yards over expected vs an unranked opponent and vs a ranked opponent is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were vs an unranked opponent and it comes up 12 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 25.1 under expected.
- Sam Houston was 2–4 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
- In a conference game, Sam Houston’s penalty yards were 34.5 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 17.2 over expected.
- On the road, Sam Houston’s pass attempts were 3.9 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.6 over expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | at Missouri State | Missouri State 24, Sam Houston 3 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 26, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.