Western Michigan @ Toledo

Sat, Oct 24, 2026

Toledo 45, Western Michigan 38Toledo was favored by 2.5, and Toledo covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Toledo was 1.2 points a game over the closing line this season, 58th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+4.5 against the line this game.

Western Michigan was 3.0 points a game over the closing line this season, 42nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →−4.5 against the line this game.

Toledo leads the series 40–24 since 1962. Toledo has won 5 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

Toledo had won 9 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 10 of 11.
Toledo had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Toledo was 3–3 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
In a conference game, Toledo’s penalty yards were 41.3 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 7.3 under expected.
At home, Toledo’s carries were 6.4 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 14.1 over expected.
Western Michigan had beaten 9 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
Western Michigan had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
In a conference game, Western Michigan’s third-down conversion rate were 11.1% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 14.4% under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 23, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.