USC @ Wisconsin

Sat, Oct 24, 2026 · No. 16 at unranked

Wisconsin 24, USC 7USC was favored by 2, and Wisconsin covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Wisconsin had won 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
Wisconsin was 3.7 points a game over the closing line this season, 38th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+19.0 against the line this game.

USC’s pass attempts were 9.6 higher vs a ranked opponent than vs an unranked opponent against expected over its last 25 games, 2nd of 77 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 19.5 over expected.
USC had beaten 6 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Ended here.
USC was 5.2 points a game under the closing line this season, 120th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−19.0 against the line this game.

At night, Wisconsin’s points allowed were 15.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 20.3 under expected.
At home, Wisconsin’s points were 15.2 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.8 under expected.
In a conference game, Wisconsin’s penalty yards were 21.1 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 28.9 under expected.
USC had failed to cover 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
USC had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
USC was 2–4 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
At night, USC’s third-down conversion rate were 19.9% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.6% over expected.
In a conference game, USC’s pass attempts were 3.9 over expected in 4 games. A +6.3 difference in pass attempts over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 16 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 19.5 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 23, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.