Tennessee @ South Carolina

Sat, Oct 24, 2026 · No. 11 at unranked

South Carolina 27, Tennessee 24South Carolina was favored by 2.5, and South Carolina covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

South Carolina was 1.7 points a game over the closing line this season, 51st of 136, and 7.4 worse at home than away over its last 25, 129th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+0.5 against the line this game.

Tennessee’s pass attempts were 11.8 higher vs a ranked opponent than vs an unranked opponent against expected over its last 25 games, 1st of 77 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 7.2 under expected.
Tennessee had won 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Tennessee had beaten 5 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Tennessee was 3.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 37th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−0.5 against the line this game.

Tennessee leads the series 27–12–2 since 1903. South Carolina has won 4 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

South Carolina was 1–3 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
At home, South Carolina’s third-down conversion rate were 9.5% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.8% under expected.
Tennessee had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
On the road, Tennessee’s penalty yards were 31.3 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 36.7 over expected.
Against an unranked opponent, Tennessee’s rushing yards were 45.1 over expected in 4 games. A +83.5 difference in rushing yards over expected vs an unranked opponent and vs a ranked opponent is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were vs an unranked opponent and it comes up 14 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 26.4 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 23, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.