Tennessee’s pass attempts vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tennessee was 7.3 pass attempts over vs a ranked opponent and 4.6 pass attempts under vs an unranked opponent over its last 25 games, 8 games against 15. The plain averages are 37.0 and 27.4, a difference of 9.6. Both neutral-site games were vs an unranked opponent. Both games after a bye were vs an unranked opponent.
Tennessee’s +11.9 vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 1st of the 77 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
pass attempts a game over expected
A +11.9 difference in pass attempts over expected vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +9.6 difference in pass attempts vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Georgia | L | 33 | 30.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs UTEP | W | 28 | 29.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 26 | 29.8 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ Ohio State | L | 31 | 28.4 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Syracuse (neutral) | W | 28 | 30.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs East Tennessee State | W | 52 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsGeorgia | L | 36 | 32.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs UAB | W | 30 | 26.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Mississippi State | W | 40 | 31.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Arkansas | W | 25 | 29.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | 44 | 29.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Kentucky | W | 26 | 32.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Oklahoma | L | 45 | 30.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs New Mexico State | W | 27 | 34.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Florida | W | 22 | 32.5 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsVanderbilt | L | 44 | 34.9 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs Illinois (neutral) | L | 18 | 36.1 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Furman | W | 27 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 21 | 26.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 26 | 30.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Texas | L | 32 | 26.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Auburn | W | 18 | 31.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Arkansas | W | 29 | 24.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsAlabama | W | 31 | 24.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ South Carolina | L | 23 | 30.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.4 in 2024, minus 0.3 in 2025, minus 0.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 73% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- East Tennessee State, Furman have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.