Kentucky @ Tennessee

Sat, Nov 7 · Neyland Stadium · No. 8 at No. 16

The line has it Tennessee 29, Kentucky 22.Tennessee −6.5, total 50.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Kentucky at Tennessee: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Kentucky8 games	Tennessee8 games
	+5.7	+2.2
	−1.7	−9.2
	+11	−15
	−11	−74
	+0.5	+0.1
	+12.4	−17.1
	−5.2%	−3.6%
	+0.7	+1.8
	−17.9	+4.8
	+1.2	+0.6
	−0.5	−0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Tennessee

Tennessee’s pass attempts are 11.9 higher vs a ranked opponent than vs an unranked opponent against expected over its last 25 games, 1st of 77 teams.fact · rankedthe split →
Tennessee is 3.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 34th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Kentucky

Kentucky’s passing yards are 88.3 higher vs a ranked opponent than vs an unranked opponent against expected over its last 25 games, 1st of 77 teams.fact · rankedthe split →
Kentucky has won 4 straight as the underdog, tied for the longest active winning streak as the underdog in FBS.streakthe runs →
Kentucky has covered 6 straight.streakthe runs →
Kentucky has won 6 straight.streakthe runs →
Kentucky has beaten 5 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →
Kentucky is 7.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 13th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Tennessee leads the series 83–25–9 since 1906. Tennessee has won the last 5.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Tennessee has won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
Tennessee is 2–3 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without Javin Gordon, Tennessee’s penalty yards are 24.6 under expected in 4 games. A −68.0 difference in penalty yards over expected without Javin Gordon vs with Javin Gordon is unusual: shuffle which games were without Javin Gordon and it comes up 2 times in 100.thinwithout him →
Since Faizon Brandon’s last game, Tennessee’s points allowed are 7.4 under expected in 4 games. A −10.3 difference in points allowed over expected since Faizon Brandon’s last game vs with Faizon Brandon is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were since Faizon Brandon’s last game and it comes up 16 times in 100.thinwithout him →
Without George MacIntyre, Tennessee’s penalty yards are 14.3 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Kentucky is 4–1 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Without CJ Baxter, Kentucky’s carries are 10.9 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Jovantae Barnes, Kentucky’s pass attempts are 10.2 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
At night, Kentucky’s penalty yards are 26.4 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Oct 25, 2025	at Kentucky	Tennessee 56, Kentucky 34
Nov 2, 2024	at Tennessee	Tennessee 28, Kentucky 18
Oct 28, 2023	at Kentucky	Tennessee 33, Kentucky 27
Oct 29, 2022	at Tennessee	Tennessee 44, Kentucky 6
Nov 6, 2021	at Kentucky	Tennessee 45, Kentucky 42
Oct 17, 2020	at Tennessee	Kentucky 34, Tennessee 7
Nov 10, 2018	at Tennessee	Tennessee 24, Kentucky 7
Oct 28, 2017	at Kentucky	Kentucky 29, Tennessee 26
Nov 12, 2016	at Tennessee	Tennessee 49, Kentucky 36
Oct 31, 2015	at Kentucky	Tennessee 52, Kentucky 21

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.