Putting Up Numbers· college football

Syracuse @ North Carolina

Sat, Oct 24, 2026

Syracuse 31, North Carolina 30North Carolina was favored by 8, and Syracuse covered.

Syracuse at North Carolina: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameSyracuse1 gameNorth Carolina1 game
Points+8.6+0.3
Points allowed+4.0+5.3
Total offense, yards+86−20
Total defense, yards+15+70
Touchdowns+1.3−0.8
Passer rating+6.6−10.2
Third downs+2.2%+13.5%
Sacks−0.3−1.3
Penalty yards+10.4−40.8
Turnovers forced−1.2−1.2
Turnovers lost−1.2−1.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

North Carolina

Syracuse

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

North Carolina

  • North Carolina was 4.7 points a game over the closing line this season, 29th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−9.0 against the line this game.

Syracuse

  • Syracuse was 4.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 26th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+9.0 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • At home, North Carolina’s carries were 8.0 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 7.8 under expected.
  • In a conference game, North Carolina’s passing yards were 39.8 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 38.6 over expected.
  • Syracuse had lost 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • On the road, Syracuse’s carries were 7.1 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.3 over expected.
  • At night, Syracuse’s penalty yards were 20.3 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.7 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 24, 2026at North CarolinaSyracuse 31, North Carolina 30
Oct 31, 2025at SyracuseNorth Carolina 27, Syracuse 10
Oct 7, 2023at North CarolinaNorth Carolina 40, Syracuse 7
Sep 12, 2020at North CarolinaNorth Carolina 31, Syracuse 6
Oct 20, 2018at SyracuseSyracuse 40, North Carolina 37
Sep 6, 2003at North CarolinaSyracuse 49, North Carolina 47
Sep 7, 2002at SyracuseNorth Carolina 30, Syracuse 22
Sep 7, 1996at SyracuseNorth Carolina 27, Syracuse 10
Sep 2, 1995at North CarolinaSyracuse 20, North Carolina 9

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 23, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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