Oregon @ 
Illinois
Illinois 21, Oregon 10Oregon was favored by 10.5, and Illinois covered.
| a game | Oregon1 game | Illinois1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | −15.4 | −5.7 |
| Points allowed | −8.2 | −18.9 |
| Total offense, yards | +60 | −85 |
| Total defense, yards | −86 | +44 |
| Touchdowns | −2.1 | −0.1 |
| Passer rating | −26.6 | +2.2 |
| Third downs | −15.0% | +13.2% |
| Sacks | +1.8 | +0.3 |
| Penalty yards | −27.8 | −21.6 |
| Turnovers forced | −0.3 | −0.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −0.1 | −0.2 |
Who put up numbers
Illinois
- Passing yardsMichael Clayton II84 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsMichael Clayton II2 passing touchdowns
- Rushing yardsAidan Laughery123 rushing yards
Oregon
Analysis
Illinois
- Illinois was 4.8 points a game under the closing line this season, 116th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+21.5 against the line this game.
Oregon
- Oregon was 4.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 117th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−21.5 against the line this game.
The series
- Oregon leads the series 3–2 since 1970.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Illinois had won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- Illinois had beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- In a conference game, Illinois’ pass attempts were 7.6 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 16.7 under expected.
- At home, Illinois’ carries were 7.3 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 7.4 over expected.
- Oregon had won 9 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
- Oregon had beaten 9 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
- Oregon had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- Oregon was 2–4 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
- On the road, Oregon’s points were 10.8 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 20.5 under expected.
- Against an unranked opponent, Oregon’s passing yards were 47.8 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.2 over expected.
- In a conference game, Oregon’s third-down conversion rate were 8.3% under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 14.8% under expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | at Illinois | Illinois 21, Oregon 10 |
| Oct 26, 2024 | at Oregon | Oregon 38, Illinois 9 |
| Sep 9, 1995 | at Oregon | Oregon 34, Illinois 31 |
| Sep 25, 1993 | at Illinois | Oregon 13, Illinois 7 |
| Sep 19, 1970 | at Illinois | Illinois 20, Oregon 16 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 23, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.