Michigan State @ 
UCLA
UCLA 28, Michigan State 10UCLA was favored by 16.5, and UCLA covered.
| a game | Michigan State1 game | UCLA1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | −7.0 | −1.4 |
| Points allowed | −3.8 | −9.3 |
| Total offense, yards | −146 | +75 |
| Total defense, yards | +32 | −150 |
| Touchdowns | −1.0 | +0.7 |
| Passer rating | −31.7 | −19.2 |
| Third downs | −15.0% | −2.9% |
| Sacks | −1.6 | +1.4 |
| Penalty yards | +23.3 | +8.6 |
| Turnovers forced | +0.8 | +1.8 |
| Turnovers lost | +1.4 | +0.9 |
Who put up numbers
UCLA
- Passing yardsTy Dieffenbach198 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsTy Dieffenbach1 passing touchdown
- Rushing yardsAnthony Woods112 rushing yards
Michigan State
Analysis
UCLA
- UCLA had covered 7 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 8.
- UCLA had won 6 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 7.
- UCLA had beaten 5 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
- UCLA had covered 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
- UCLA was 15.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 3rd of 136, and 11.8 worse at home than away over its last 25, 134th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+1.5 against the line this game.
Michigan State
- Michigan State had lost 5 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
- Michigan State was 0.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 76th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−1.5 against the line this game.
The series
- UCLA leads the series 5–3 since 1953. UCLA has won the last 5.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- UCLA was 5–0 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
- At home, UCLA’s third-down conversion rate were 15.8% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.7% under expected.
- In a conference game, UCLA’s carries were 6.1 over expected in 4 games. A +10.9 difference in carries over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 14 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 8.8 over expected.
- Michigan State had covered 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- Michigan State was 3–2 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
- Against a top-10 opponent, Michigan State’s pass attempts were 11.2 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.6 under expected.
- On the road, Michigan State’s penalty yards were 33.9 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 27.9 over expected.
- Against a ranked opponent, Michigan State’s carries were 6.7 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 7.9 under expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | at UCLA | UCLA 28, Michigan State 10 |
| Oct 11, 2025 | at Michigan State | UCLA 38, Michigan State 13 |
| Sep 28, 1974 | at UCLA | UCLA 56, Michigan State 14 |
| Sep 29, 1973 | at Michigan State | UCLA 34, Michigan State 21 |
| Jan 1, 1966 | at UCLA | UCLA 14, Michigan State 12 |
| Sep 18, 1965 | at Michigan State | Michigan State 13, UCLA 3 |
| Jan 2, 1956 | at UCLA | Michigan State 17, UCLA 14 |
| Jan 1, 1954 | at UCLA | Michigan State 28, UCLA 20 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 23, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.