Putting Up Numbers· college football

Miami (OH) @ Central Michigan

Sat, Oct 24, 2026

Miami (OH) 28, Central Michigan 27Miami (OH) was favored by 3.5, and Central Michigan covered.

Miami (OH) at Central Michigan: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameMiami (OH)1 gameCentral Michigan1 game
Points+3.1−2.5
Points allowed+6.4+5.2
Total offense, yards−5−127
Total defense, yards−41+23
Touchdowns+0.9−1.8
Passer rating−27.3−13.4
Third downs+6.0%+0.8%
Sacks−0.1+1.5
Penalty yards+14.5+28.0
Turnovers forced−1.2+0.8
Turnovers lost+0.7−1.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Central Michigan

Miami (OH)

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Central Michigan

  • Central Michigan’s total yards were 103.0 higher at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 3rd of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 85.8 under expected.
  • Central Michigan was 3.4 points a game under the closing line this season, 103rd of 136, and 12.2 better at home than away over its last 25, 10th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+2.5 against the line this game.

Miami (OH)

  • Miami (OH) was 2.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 101st of 136.fact · rankedits form →−2.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • Miami (OH) leads the series 18–13–1 since 1978. Miami (OH) has won the last 6.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Central Michigan had won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Central Michigan had covered 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Central Michigan was 2–3 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Covered.
  • At home, Central Michigan’s carries were 11.0 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.4 under expected.
  • Miami (OH) was 3–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • In a conference game, Miami (OH)’s passing yards were 104.2 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 25.6 over expected.
  • On the road, Miami (OH)’s points allowed were 7.6 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.6 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 24, 2026at Central MichiganMiami (OH) 28, Central Michigan 27
Oct 26, 2024at Miami (OH)Miami (OH) 46, Central Michigan 7
Oct 2, 2021at Miami (OH)Miami (OH) 28, Central Michigan 17
Dec 7, 2019neutralMiami (OH) 26, Central Michigan 21
Sep 23, 2017at Central MichiganMiami (OH) 31, Central Michigan 14
Nov 4, 2016at Miami (OH)Miami (OH) 37, Central Michigan 17
Nov 15, 2014at Central MichiganCentral Michigan 34, Miami (OH) 27
Oct 5, 2013at Miami (OH)Central Michigan 21, Miami (OH) 9
Nov 17, 2012at Central MichiganCentral Michigan 30, Miami (OH) 16
Oct 16, 2010at Central MichiganMiami (OH) 27, Central Michigan 20

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 23, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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