Central Michigan’s total yards at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Central Michigan was 17.7 yards over at home and 68.1 yards under away over its last 25 games, 10 games against 12. The plain averages are 372.2 and 245.8, a difference of 126.3. Both ranked opponents were away. Both opponents outside the major colleges were at home.
Central Michigan’s +85.8 at home vs away over expected ranks 5th of the 136 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
total yards a game over expected
at home
+17.7
away
−68.1
-1000100
A +85.8 difference in total yards over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.
plain
372.2
245.8
200300400500
A +126.3 difference in total yards at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | total yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2024 | vs Bowling Green | L | 250 | 309.3 | |
| Nov 12, 2024 | @ Toledo | L | 236 | 335.5 | |
| Nov 19, 2024 | vs Western Michigan | W | 318 | 397.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Northern Illinois | L | 204 | 267.5 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ San Jose State | W | 362 | 352.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 228 | 259.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Michigan | L | 142 | 268.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsWWagner | W | 507 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 451 | 384.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Akron | L | 374 | 383.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Bowling Green | W | 276 | 328.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 502 | 400.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Western Michigan | L | 242 | 284.1 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Buffalo | W | 362 | 361.1 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | @ Kent State | W | 299 | 405.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsToledo | L | 323 | 278.9 | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | vs Northwestern (neutral) | L | 269 | 265.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | 149 | 275.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Colgate | W | 277 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Wyoming | W | 372 | 310.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 162 | 279.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsAkron | W | 482 | 372.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Ohio | L | 276 | 327.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsWestern Michigan | L | 337 | 319.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 285 | 370.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 6.1 in 2024, plus 7.7 in 2025, plus 12.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% in 2024, 79% in 2025, 67% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Wagner, Colgate have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.