Ohio @ Miami (OH)

Tue, Nov 10 · Yager Stadium

No line yet.

Ohio at Miami (OH): against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Ohio8 games	Miami (OH)8 games
	−1.1	−3.0
	+3.7	+3.9
	−50	−48
	+29	+32
	−0.5	−0.8
	−0.6	−13.3
	+7.5%	−7.5%
	+0.1	0.0
	−19.4	+7.2
	−0.4	−0.1
	+0.3	−0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Miami (OH)

Miami (OH) is 2.8 points a game under the closing line this season, 102nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Ohio

Ohio has beaten 5 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →
Ohio has won 5 straight.streakthe runs →
Ohio has won 17 straight at home, the longest active home winning streak in FBS.streakthe runs →
Ohio is 3.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 35th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Miami (OH) leads the series 33–30–1 since 1962. Ohio has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Miami (OH) has won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
Miami (OH) has covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
Without Caleb Heavner, Miami (OH)’s passing yards are 84.5 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since David McComb’s last game, Miami (OH)’s passing yards are 71.8 under expected in 4 games. A −156.3 difference in passing yards over expected since David McComb’s last game vs with David McComb is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were since David McComb’s last game and it comes up 9 times in 100.thinwithout him →
At home, Miami (OH)’s third-down conversion rate are 8.3% under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
Without Duncan Brune, Ohio’s third-down conversion rate are 25.3% over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Matt Vezza, Ohio’s penalty yards are 24.3 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Nick Poulos, Ohio’s passing yards are 61.2 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Nov 4, 2025	at Ohio	Ohio 24, Miami (OH) 20
Dec 7, 2024	neutral	Ohio 38, Miami (OH) 3
Oct 19, 2024	at Miami (OH)	Miami (OH) 30, Ohio 20
Oct 28, 2023	at Ohio	Miami (OH) 30, Ohio 16
Nov 8, 2022	at Miami (OH)	Ohio 37, Miami (OH) 21
Nov 2, 2021	at Ohio	Ohio 35, Miami (OH) 33
Nov 6, 2019	at Ohio	Miami (OH) 24, Ohio 21
Nov 7, 2018	at Miami (OH)	Miami (OH) 30, Ohio 28
Oct 31, 2017	at Ohio	Ohio 45, Miami (OH) 28
Oct 1, 2016	at Miami (OH)	Ohio 17, Miami (OH) 7

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.