Louisiana @ Southern Miss

Sat, Oct 24, 2026

Southern Miss 35, Louisiana 31Louisiana was favored by 11.5, and Southern Miss covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Southern Miss had lost 5 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Southern Miss was 0.3 points a game under the closing line this season, 74th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+15.5 against the line this game.

Louisiana had covered 5 straight on the road.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Louisiana had won 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Louisiana was 9.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 10th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−15.5 against the line this game.

Southern Miss leads the series 24–5 since 1963. Southern Miss has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

Southern Miss had failed to cover 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Southern Miss was 1–4 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Covered.
At home, Southern Miss’ pass attempts were 10.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.6 over expected.
In a conference game, Southern Miss’ passing yards were 101.2 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 60.7 under expected.
Louisiana had beaten 8 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Louisiana had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
Louisiana was 3–1–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
In a conference game, Louisiana’s penalty yards were 30.3 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.5 over expected.
On the road, Louisiana’s points were 8.1 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.4 under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 23, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.