South Alabama @ Louisiana

Sat, Nov 7 · Cajun Field

The line has it Louisiana 33, South Alabama 25.Louisiana −8.5, total 57.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

South Alabama at Louisiana: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	South Alabama8 games	Louisiana8 games
	+5.3	+0.8
	+10.7	−2.1
	+36	−16
	+70	−36
	+0.8	+0.3
	+13.5	−2.7
	−0.2%	+1.8%
	−0.3	−1.0
	+6.0	−13.5
	+0.1	+0.3
	−0.6	−0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Louisiana

Louisiana has won 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →
Louisiana is 6.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 19th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

South Alabama

South Alabama is 1.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 62nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Louisiana leads the series 10–4 since 2012.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Louisiana has beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →
Louisiana is 3–2–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Since Darrell Smith’s last game, Louisiana’s penalty yards are 20.0 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
At home, Louisiana’s carries are 8.1 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
In a conference game, Louisiana’s penalty yards are 20.4 under expected in 4 games. A −24.1 difference in penalty yards over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 17 times in 100.thinthe split →
South Alabama is 2–2 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Without Jared Hollins, South Alabama’s third-down conversion rate are 22.3% over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Nov 1, 2025	at South Alabama	Louisiana 31, South Alabama 22
Nov 16, 2024	at Louisiana	South Alabama 24, Louisiana 22
Oct 28, 2023	at South Alabama	Louisiana 33, South Alabama 20
Oct 1, 2022	at Louisiana	South Alabama 20, Louisiana 17
Oct 2, 2021	at South Alabama	Louisiana 20, South Alabama 18
Nov 14, 2020	at Louisiana	Louisiana 38, South Alabama 10
Nov 16, 2019	at South Alabama	Louisiana 37, South Alabama 27
Nov 17, 2018	at Louisiana	Louisiana 48, South Alabama 38
Nov 4, 2017	at South Alabama	Louisiana 19, South Alabama 14
Sep 17, 2016	at Louisiana	Louisiana 28, South Alabama 23

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.