Putting Up Numbers· college football

Bowling Green @ Buffalo

Sat, Oct 24, 2026

Buffalo 31, Bowling Green 24Buffalo was favored by 3, and Buffalo covered.

Bowling Green at Buffalo: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameBowling Green1 gameBuffalo1 game
Points−0.9−0.7
Points allowed+7.3+7.4
Total offense, yards−46−21
Total defense, yards+32+54
Touchdowns+0.1+0.4
Passer rating+22.7−14.6
Third downs+17.2%+13.6%
Sacks−1.4−0.3
Penalty yards−43.6−56.0
Turnovers forced−0.2+0.8
Turnovers lost+0.8−0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Buffalo

Bowling Green

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Buffalo

  • Buffalo was 0.2 points a game under the closing line this season, 73rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+4.0 against the line this game.

Bowling Green

  • Bowling Green was 2.3 points a game under the closing line this season, 95th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−4.0 against the line this game.

The series

  • Bowling Green leads the series 13–10 since 2000. Buffalo has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • In a conference game, Buffalo’s points allowed were 13.7 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.9 over expected.
  • At home, Buffalo’s carries were 6.9 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.3 under expected.
  • Bowling Green had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Bowling Green was 2–2 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • On the road, Bowling Green’s points allowed were 9.9 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.0 over expected.
  • In a conference game, Bowling Green’s passing yards were 52.0 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 25.4 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 24, 2026at BuffaloBuffalo 31, Bowling Green 24
Nov 1, 2025at Bowling GreenBuffalo 28, Bowling Green 3
Oct 14, 2023at BuffaloBowling Green 24, Buffalo 14
Oct 8, 2022at Bowling GreenBuffalo 38, Bowling Green 7
Oct 30, 2021at BuffaloBowling Green 56, Buffalo 44
Nov 17, 2020at Bowling GreenBuffalo 42, Bowling Green 17
Nov 29, 2019at BuffaloBuffalo 49, Bowling Green 7
Nov 23, 2018at Bowling GreenBuffalo 44, Bowling Green 14
Nov 7, 2017at BuffaloBuffalo 38, Bowling Green 28
Nov 25, 2016at Bowling GreenBowling Green 27, Buffalo 19

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 23, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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