Kent State @ Bowling Green

Wed, Nov 11 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium

No line yet.

Kent State at Bowling Green: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Kent State9 games	Bowling Green9 games
	−14.7	−9.8
	+7.0	+7.9
	−118	−115
	+35	+37
	−1.7	−1.3
	−31.0	−15.3
	−7.3%	−2.0%
	−0.2	+0.6
	+13.0	−8.5
	−0.4	−0.1
	+0.1	+0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Bowling Green

Bowling Green is 2.1 points a game under the closing line this season, 94th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Kent State

Kent State’s points allowed are 15.8 lower in a conference game than in a nonconference game against expected over its last 25 games, 134th of 134 teams.fact · rankedthe split →
Kent State has covered 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →
Kent State is 4.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 117th of 136, and 12.3 worse away than at home over its last 25, 130th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Bowling Green leads the series 47–16 since 1962.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Bowling Green has lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Since Austyn Dendy’s last game, Bowling Green’s points allowed are 8.2 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
At home, Bowling Green’s rushing yards are 54.5 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
In a conference game, Bowling Green’s third-down conversion rate are 8.3% over expected in 4 games. A +23.1% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 3 times in 100.thinthe split →
Since Mason King’s last game, Kent State’s penalty yards are 25.6 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
On the road, Kent State’s points allowed are 12.3 over expected in 4 games. A +23.9 difference in points allowed over expected away vs at home is unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 3 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Oct 25, 2025	at Kent State	Kent State 24, Bowling Green 21
Oct 19, 2024	at Bowling Green	Bowling Green 27, Kent State 6
Nov 8, 2023	at Kent State	Bowling Green 49, Kent State 19
Nov 9, 2022	at Bowling Green	Kent State 40, Bowling Green 6
Oct 2, 2021	at Kent State	Kent State 27, Bowling Green 20
Nov 10, 2020	at Bowling Green	Kent State 62, Bowling Green 24
Sep 21, 2019	at Kent State	Kent State 62, Bowling Green 20
Oct 30, 2018	at Bowling Green	Kent State 35, Bowling Green 28
Oct 31, 2017	at Kent State	Bowling Green 44, Kent State 16
Nov 15, 2016	at Bowling Green	Bowling Green 42, Kent State 7

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.