Putting Up Numbers· college football

UMass @ UConn

Fri, Oct 23, 2026

UConn 35, UMass 16UConn was favored by 12.5, and UConn covered.

UMass at UConn: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameUMass1 gameUConn1 game
Points−9.6+9.8
Points allowed+3.2−7.5
Total offense, yards−94+67
Total defense, yards+15−23
Touchdowns−1.3+0.7
Passer rating−20.3+54.8
Third downs−26.1%−8.1%
Sacks+2.40.0
Penalty yards+45.4+45.2
Turnovers forced−1.2−1.2
Turnovers lost−1.2−1.3

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

UConn

UMass

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

UConn

  • UConn was 10.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 8th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+6.5 against the line this game.

UMass

  • UMass was 5.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 20th of 136, and 9.3 better away than at home over its last 25, 6th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−6.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • UConn leads the series 7–4 since 1899. UConn has won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • UConn had won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • UConn had covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • At night, UConn’s third-down conversion rate were 22.1% over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 8.0% under expected.
  • At home, UConn’s points allowed were 13.9 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.5 under expected.
  • At night, UMass’ points of margin were 36.6 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 8.0 under expected.
  • On the road, UMass’ carries were 10.6 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 15.4 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 23, 2026at UConnUConn 35, UMass 16
Nov 30, 2024at UMassUConn 47, UMass 42
Nov 25, 2023at UMassUConn 31, UMass 18
Nov 4, 2022at UConnUConn 27, UMass 10
Oct 9, 2021at UMassUMass 27, UConn 13
Oct 26, 2019at UMassUConn 56, UMass 35
Oct 27, 2018at UConnUMass 22, UConn 17
Aug 30, 2012at UConnUConn 37, UMass 0
Oct 27, 1979at UConnUConn 24, UMass 0
Nov 17, 1900at UConnUMass 17, UConn 6

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 22, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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