NC State @ 
Stanford
Stanford 31, NC State 28NC State was favored by 7.5, and Stanford covered.
| a game | NC State1 game | Stanford1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | −5.8 | +1.8 |
| Points allowed | +8.9 | +1.4 |
| Total offense, yards | −51 | +81 |
| Total defense, yards | +121 | +6 |
| Touchdowns | −0.4 | +0.3 |
| Passer rating | +5.8 | +12.8 |
| Third downs | +13.7% | −1.0% |
| Sacks | −0.9 | +0.1 |
| Penalty yards | −1.2 | −2.3 |
| Turnovers forced | −1.2 | −1.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −1.2 | −1.2 |
Who put up numbers
Stanford
- Passing yardsDavis Warren303 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsDavis Warren4 passing touchdowns
- Rushing yardsMicah Ford150 rushing yards
NC State
Analysis
Stanford
- Stanford was 10.6 points a game under the closing line this season, 136th of 136, and 14.7 better at home than away over its last 25, 4th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+10.5 against the line this game.
NC State
- NC State was 0.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 68th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−10.5 against the line this game.
The series
- The series is tied 1–1 since 2024.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Stanford had won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- Stanford was 1–4 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Covered.
- At home, Stanford’s passing yards were 71.2 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 61.5 over expected.
- At night, Stanford’s passing yards were 64.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 61.5 over expected.
- Against an unranked opponent, Stanford’s rushing yards were 47.2 under expected in 4 games. A −55.0 difference in rushing yards over expected vs an unranked opponent and vs a ranked opponent is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were vs an unranked opponent and it comes up 18 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 45.7 over expected.
- At night, NC State’s third-down conversion rate were 23.9% over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.8% over expected.
- In a conference game, NC State’s rushing yards were 56.3 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 28.1 under expected.
- On the road, NC State’s penalty yards were 15.0 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.7 over expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | at Stanford | Stanford 31, NC State 28 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | at NC State | NC State 59, Stanford 28 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 22, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.