Putting Up Numbers· college football

Duke @ Virginia

Fri, Oct 23, 2026

Duke 19, Virginia 16Virginia was favored by 2.5, and Duke covered.

Duke at Virginia: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameDuke1 gameVirginia1 game
Points−4.6−5.6
Points allowed−11.3−8.3
Total offense, yards−32+8
Total defense, yards−16−61
Touchdowns−0.9−1.6
Passer rating−1.6−25.4
Third downs−18.8%−6.6%
Sacks+2.4−0.2
Penalty yards−9.2−33.4
Turnovers forced+0.7−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.1+0.8

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Virginia

Duke

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Virginia

  • Virginia had won 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • Virginia was 2.1 points a game under the closing line this season, 90th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−5.5 against the line this game.

Duke

  • Duke was 5.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 21st of 136.fact · rankedits form →+5.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • Virginia leads the series 40–35 since 1890. Duke has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Virginia had covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Virginia was 3–3 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • In a conference game, Virginia’s pass attempts were 9.0 under expected in 4 games. A −18.6 difference in pass attempts over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 12 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 4.0 under expected.
  • At home, Virginia’s carries were 7.8 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 16.9 over expected.
  • At night, Virginia’s points were 5.6 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.1 under expected.
  • Duke had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Duke had won 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Duke had beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • On the road, Duke’s penalty yards were 27.0 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 14.3 under expected.
  • In a conference game, Duke’s pass attempts were 4.5 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.9 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 23, 2026at VirginiaDuke 19, Virginia 16
Dec 6, 2025neutralDuke 27, Virginia 20
Nov 15, 2025at DukeVirginia 34, Duke 17
Nov 18, 2023at VirginiaVirginia 30, Duke 27
Oct 1, 2022at DukeDuke 38, Virginia 17
Oct 16, 2021at VirginiaVirginia 48, Duke 0
Sep 26, 2020at VirginiaVirginia 38, Duke 20
Oct 19, 2019at VirginiaVirginia 48, Duke 14
Oct 20, 2018at DukeVirginia 28, Duke 14
Oct 7, 2017at VirginiaVirginia 28, Duke 21

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 22, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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