Putting Up Numbers· college football

East Carolina @ Memphis

Thu, Oct 22, 2026

Memphis 41, East Carolina 34Memphis was favored by 10.5, and East Carolina covered.

East Carolina at Memphis: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameEast Carolina1 gameMemphis1 game
Points+11.3+14.1
Points allowed+7.4+13.9
Total offense, yards+52+117
Total defense, yards+10+92
Touchdowns+0.6+2.3
Passer rating−22.9+27.0
Third downs−5.0%−10.9%
Sacks−0.9+2.0
Penalty yards−33.3+19.4
Turnovers forced−0.2+1.8
Turnovers lost+1.6−0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Memphis

East Carolina

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Memphis

  • Memphis was 2.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 43rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →−3.5 against the line this game.

East Carolina

  • East Carolina was 5.2 points a game under the closing line this season, 119th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+3.5 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • Memphis had won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Memphis was 3–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • In a conference game, Memphis’ carries were 7.6 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.5 under expected.
  • At home, Memphis’ third-down conversion rate were 12.1% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 10.6% under expected.
  • East Carolina had beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • At night, East Carolina’s carries were 8.7 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.1 over expected.
  • In a conference game, East Carolina’s carries were 7.0 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.1 over expected.
  • On the road, East Carolina’s pass attempts were 6.7 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 10.7 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 22, 2026at MemphisMemphis 41, East Carolina 34
Nov 15, 2025at East CarolinaEast Carolina 31, Memphis 27
Oct 15, 2022at East CarolinaEast Carolina 47, Memphis 45
Nov 13, 2021at MemphisEast Carolina 30, Memphis 29
Nov 3, 2018at East CarolinaMemphis 59, East Carolina 41
Nov 25, 2017at MemphisMemphis 70, East Carolina 13
Oct 13, 2012at East CarolinaEast Carolina 41, Memphis 7
Oct 15, 2011at MemphisEast Carolina 35, Memphis 17
Sep 11, 2010at East CarolinaEast Carolina 49, Memphis 27
Oct 27, 2009at MemphisEast Carolina 38, Memphis 19

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 21, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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