Memphis @ South Florida

Thu, Nov 12 · Raymond James Stadium

No line yet.

Memphis at South Florida: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Memphis9 games	South Florida8 games
	+9.4	−5.9
	−1.1	−9.1
	+128	−117
	+30	−49
	+1.7	−1.4
	+45.9	−19.5
	+0.5%	−3.3%
	+0.6	+0.7
	−6.7	−17.7
	+1.0	−0.1
	+0.3	−0.8

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

South Florida

South Florida’s total yards are 153.6 higher in a conference game than in a nonconference game against expected over its last 25 games, 1st of 134 teams.fact · rankedthe split →
South Florida is 0.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 65th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Memphis

Memphis has won 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →
Memphis is 4.2 points a game over the closing line this season, 27th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Memphis leads the series 10–4 since 2001. Memphis has won the last 5.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

South Florida has won 9 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
South Florida has won 7 of its last 10.countits form →
South Florida has covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
Without Cameron Seldon, South Florida’s pass attempts are 13.0 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since Michael Van Buren Jr.’s last game, South Florida’s pass attempts are 10.5 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Memphis has won 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Without Dallan Hayden, Memphis’ passing yards are 81.7 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
After a bye, Memphis’ carries are 18.9 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Oct 25, 2025	at Memphis	Memphis 34, South Florida 31
Oct 12, 2024	neutral	Memphis 21, South Florida 3
Nov 4, 2023	at Memphis	Memphis 59, South Florida 50
Nov 7, 2020	at Memphis	Memphis 34, South Florida 33
Nov 23, 2019	at South Florida	Memphis 49, South Florida 10
Nov 12, 2016	at Memphis	South Florida 49, Memphis 42
Oct 2, 2015	at South Florida	Memphis 24, South Florida 17
Nov 22, 2014	at Memphis	Memphis 31, South Florida 20
Nov 16, 2013	at South Florida	Memphis 23, South Florida 10
Dec 20, 2008	neutral	South Florida 41, Memphis 14

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.