Virginia @ 
SMU
SMU 23, Virginia 13SMU was favored by 10, and the game pushed.
| a game | Virginia1 game | SMU1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | −10.6 | −4.9 |
| Points allowed | −10.5 | −10.2 |
| Total offense, yards | −78 | +25 |
| Total defense, yards | −41 | −88 |
| Touchdowns | −1.8 | −1.4 |
| Passer rating | −20.5 | +5.3 |
| Third downs | −3.4% | −9.3% |
| Sacks | −0.7 | −2.1 |
| Penalty yards | −25.3 | −10.8 |
| Turnovers forced | −1.2 | −0.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −0.1 | −1.1 |
Who put up numbers
SMU
- Passing yardsKevin Jennings246 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsKevin Jennings2 passing touchdowns
- Rushing yardsKendrick Raphael124 rushing yards
Virginia
Analysis
SMU
- SMU had won 7 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 8.
- SMU had beaten 4 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
- SMU was 5.3 points a game under the closing line this season, 116th of 136.fact · rankedits form →0.0 against the line this game.
Virginia
- Virginia had won 4 straight as the underdog.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- Virginia had won 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
- Virginia was 2.4 points a game under the closing line this season, 91st of 136.fact · rankedits form →0.0 against the line this game.
The series
- SMU leads the series 2–0 since 2024. SMU has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- SMU had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
- SMU was 1–2–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →A push.
- At home, SMU’s rushing yards were 89.9 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.6 under expected.
- Against an unranked opponent, SMU’s third-down conversion rate were 17.1% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 11.5% under expected.
- In a conference game, SMU’s third-down conversion rate were 9.6% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 11.5% under expected.
- Virginia had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- On the road, Virginia’s total yards were 200.9 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 37.0 under expected.
- In a conference game, Virginia’s pass attempts were 10.0 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.8 under expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | at SMU | SMU 23, Virginia 13 |
| Nov 23, 2024 | at Virginia | SMU 33, Virginia 7 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 16, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.