Virginia Tech @ SMU

Sat, Nov 7 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium

The line has it SMU 31, Virginia Tech 25.SMU −6, total 56.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Virginia Tech at SMU: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Virginia Tech8 games	SMU8 games
	+1.8	+3.6
	−0.4	−1.7
	+20	+64
	−10	−63
	+0.1	+0.7
	+20.8	+29.1
	+0.8%	+5.2%
	+0.6	+0.5
	−2.1	+12.8
	−0.6	−0.7
	−0.1	+0.4

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

SMU

SMU has won 9 straight at home.streakthe runs →
SMU is 2.3 points a game under the closing line this season, 95th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech’s third-down conversion rate are 20.2% lower vs a ranked opponent than vs an unranked opponent against expected over its last 25 games, 77th of 77 teams.fact · rankedthe split →
Virginia Tech is 1.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 61st of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

SMU leads the series 2–1 since 1972. SMU has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

SMU has beaten 8 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →
SMU has won 7 of its last 10.countits form →
SMU is 2–3–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without Yannick Smith, SMU’s passing yards are 182.5 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since Dramekco Green’s last game, SMU’s third-down conversion rate are 10.1% under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Virginia Tech has beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →
Without Ayden Greene, Virginia Tech’s rushing yards are 122.8 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
In a conference game, Virginia Tech’s third-down conversion rate are 7.3% under expected in 5 games. A −25.5% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 4 times in 100.thinthe split →
On the road, Virginia Tech’s points allowed are 6.3 under expected in 4 games. A −12.1 difference in points allowed over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 16 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Sep 21, 1974	at SMU	SMU 28, Virginia Tech 25
Sep 29, 1973	at SMU	SMU 37, Virginia Tech 6
Sep 30, 1972	at Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech 13, SMU 10

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.