Putting Up Numbers· college football

UNLV @ Air Force

Sat, Oct 17, 2026

Air Force 41, UNLV 31The line was a pick ’em, and Air Force covered.

UNLV at Air Force: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameUNLV1 gameAir Force1 game
Points+9.8+14.4
Points allowed+13.5+9.9
Total offense, yards+49+43
Total defense, yards+58+19
Touchdowns+1.5+1.9
Passer rating+8.2−16.5
Third downs+34.4%+3.7%
Sacks−1.4−1.4
Penalty yards−22.7−29.1
Turnovers forced−1.2+0.8
Turnovers lost+0.9−1.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Air Force

UNLV

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Air Force

  • Air Force was 2.8 points a game over the closing line this season, 47th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+10.0 against the line this game.

UNLV

  • UNLV was 1.6 points a game under the closing line this season, 85th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−10.0 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • In a conference game, Air Force’s rushing yards were 136.4 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 157.2 over expected.
  • At home, Air Force’s total yards were 132.2 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 71.2 over expected.
  • In a conference game, UNLV’s points allowed were 20.8 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 17.4 over expected.
  • On the road, UNLV’s points allowed were 8.7 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 17.4 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 17, 2026at Air ForceAir Force 41, UNLV 31
Oct 11, 2025at UNLVUNLV 51, Air Force 48
Nov 18, 2023at Air ForceUNLV 31, Air Force 27
Oct 15, 2022at UNLVAir Force 42, UNLV 7
Nov 26, 2021at Air ForceAir Force 48, UNLV 14
Oct 19, 2018at UNLVAir Force 41, UNLV 35
Oct 14, 2017at Air ForceAir Force 34, UNLV 30
Nov 8, 2014at UNLVAir Force 48, UNLV 21
Nov 21, 2013at Air ForceUNLV 41, Air Force 21
Sep 22, 2012at UNLVUNLV 38, Air Force 35

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 16, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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