Air Force @ Army

Sat, Nov 7 · Michie Stadium

The line has it Army 24, Air Force 21.Army −3, total 45.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Air Force at Army: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Air Force8 games	Army8 games
	+0.3	+4.4
	−1.2	+1.3
	+9	−10
	−39	+56
	+0.3	+0.8
	−67.3	−21.5
	+12.7%	+5.0%
	−0.4	−1.3
	−14.2	−18.3
	−0.5	−0.5
	−0.1	−0.7

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Army

Army is 2.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 44th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Air Force

Air Force is 1.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 58th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Air Force leads the series 38–21–1 since 1959. Army has won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Army has beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →
Army is 3–2–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Since Carson Smith’s last game, Army’s points allowed are 15.9 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
At home, Army’s pass attempts are 12.9 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
At night, Army’s points are 9.9 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
Air Force has won 7 of its last 10.countits form →
On the road, Air Force’s third-down conversion rate are 15.9% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
At night, Air Force’s third-down conversion rate are 15.9% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Nov 1, 2025	at Air Force	Army 20, Air Force 17
Nov 2, 2024	at Army	Army 20, Air Force 3
Nov 4, 2023	neutral	Army 23, Air Force 3
Nov 5, 2022	neutral	Air Force 13, Army 7
Nov 6, 2021	neutral	Army 21, Air Force 14
Dec 19, 2020	at Army	Army 10, Air Force 7
Nov 2, 2019	at Air Force	Air Force 17, Army 13
Nov 3, 2018	at Army	Army 17, Air Force 14
Nov 4, 2017	at Air Force	Army 21, Air Force 0
Nov 5, 2016	at Army	Air Force 31, Army 12

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.