Troy @ Louisiana

Sat, Oct 17, 2026

Louisiana 33, Troy 6Louisiana was favored by 3, and Louisiana covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Louisiana had won 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
Louisiana had covered 5 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Louisiana was 6.7 points a game over the closing line this season, 19th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+24.0 against the line this game.

Troy had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Troy was 0.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 72nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →−24.0 against the line this game.

Louisiana had beaten 8 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
Louisiana had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Louisiana was 2–1–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
In a conference game, Louisiana’s penalty yards were 34.4 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 22.2 under expected.
At home, Louisiana’s points were 9.8 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.1 over expected.
Troy had covered 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
In a conference game, Troy’s rushing yards were 239.3 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 56.8 under expected.
On the road, Troy’s pass attempts were 11.3 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.6 under expected.
Against an unranked opponent, Troy’s rushing yards were 83.8 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 56.8 under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 16, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.