Toledo @ Eastern Michigan

Sat, Oct 17, 2026

Toledo 34, Eastern Michigan 14Toledo was favored by 7.5, and Toledo covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Eastern Michigan was 1.1 points a game under the closing line this season, 81st of 136.fact · rankedits form →−12.5 against the line this game.

Toledo was 0.7 points a game under the closing line this season, 79th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+12.5 against the line this game.

Toledo leads the series 38–13 since 1972. Toledo has won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →

Eastern Michigan had covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
In a conference game, Eastern Michigan’s third-down conversion rate were 26.6% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.5% under expected.
At home, Eastern Michigan’s third-down conversion rate were 21.9% under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.5% under expected.
Toledo had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Toledo was 2–3 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
In a conference game, Toledo’s penalty yards were 35.7 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 54.3 over expected.
On the road, Toledo’s rushing yards were 65.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 35.8 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 16, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.