TCU @ Baylor

Sat, Oct 17, 2026

TCU 17, Baylor 6Baylor was favored by 4.5, and TCU covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Baylor had won 4 straight by 10 or more.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Baylor had beaten 4 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Baylor had won 4 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Baylor was 9.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 12th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−15.5 against the line this game.

TCU’s points of margin were 15.3 lower in a conference game than in a nonconference game against expected over its last 25 games, 132nd of 134 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 27.4 over expected.
TCU was 1.7 points a game under the closing line this season, 87th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+15.5 against the line this game.

TCU leads the series 61–50–5 since 1903. TCU has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

At night, Baylor’s points were 28.6 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 19.9 under expected.
At home, Baylor’s penalty yards were 23.9 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 8.0 over expected.
In a conference game, Baylor’s third-down conversion rate were 11.4% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 10.5% under expected.
At night, TCU’s pass attempts were 13.8 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.1 under expected.
On the road, TCU’s pass attempts were 8.0 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.1 under expected.
Against an unranked opponent, TCU’s passing yards were 45.7 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 43.5 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 16, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.