Putting Up Numbers· college football

TCU @ Arizona

Fri, Nov 6 · Arizona Stadium · Unranked at No. 24

The line has it Arizona 27, TCU 18.Arizona −9, total 44, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

TCU at Arizona: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameTCU8 gamesArizona8 games
−9.6+7.2
−12.8−6.7
−42+46
−90−26
−1.4+0.9
−6.9+33.9
+4.2%+11.9%
+0.3+0.1
+12.7+3.8
+0.1−0.4
+0.5−0.5

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Arizona

  • Arizona has beaten 6 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →
  • Arizona has won 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →
  • Arizona is 4.7 points a game over the closing line this season, 25th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

TCU

  • TCU is 0.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 80th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

  • TCU leads the series 2–1 since 1999. TCU has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Arizona has won 7 of its last 10.countits form →
  • Arizona is 3–3 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
  • Without Antwan Roberts Jr., Arizona’s pass attempts are 5.1 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
  • At night, Arizona’s third-down conversion rate are 25.5% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • At home, Arizona’s third-down conversion rate are 19.9% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • Without Jon Denman, TCU’s passing yards are 141.7 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
  • Since Jeremy Payne’s last game, TCU’s pass attempts are 8.4 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
  • Against a ranked opponent, TCU’s pass attempts are 13.8 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Nov 23, 2024at TCUTCU 49, Arizona 28
Sep 27, 2003at ArizonaTCU 13, Arizona 10
Sep 5, 1999at TCUArizona 35, TCU 31

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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