Rutgers @ Maryland

Sat, Oct 17, 2026

Rutgers 37, Maryland 30Maryland was favored by 5.5, and Rutgers covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Maryland’s rushing yards were 62.4 lower at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 134th of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 62.2 under expected.
Maryland had lost 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
Maryland was 5.7 points a game under the closing line this season, 119th of 136, and 8.0 worse at home than away over its last 25, 129th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−12.5 against the line this game.

Rutgers was 6.7 points a game under the closing line this season, 124th of 136, and 7.7 better away than at home over its last 25, 10th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+12.5 against the line this game.

Maryland leads the series 12–10 since 1920. Rutgers has won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

Maryland had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
In a conference game, Maryland’s third-down conversion rate were 21.3% under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 11.7% under expected.
At home, Maryland’s points allowed were 15.2 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 10.4 over expected.
Rutgers had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
Against an unranked opponent, Rutgers’ rushing yards were 90.2 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 11.4 over expected.
On the road, Rutgers’ carries were 7.5 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.8 over expected.
In a conference game, Rutgers’ points were 5.2 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 10.4 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 16, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.