Northwestern @ 
Michigan State
Northwestern 24, Michigan State 21Northwestern was favored by 7.5, and Michigan State covered.
| a game | Northwestern1 game | Michigan State1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | −1.2 | −3.7 |
| Points allowed | −1.6 | −4.0 |
| Total offense, yards | +10 | −87 |
| Total defense, yards | −18 | −39 |
| Touchdowns | −0.9 | +0.2 |
| Passer rating | −4.0 | +12.8 |
| Third downs | +12.1% | −15.3% |
| Sacks | −1.6 | +3.0 |
| Penalty yards | −33.1 | −41.8 |
| Turnovers forced | −0.2 | −1.3 |
| Turnovers lost | −1.1 | −0.3 |
Who put up numbers
Michigan State
- Passing yardsAlessio Milivojevic216 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsAlessio Milivojevic2 passing touchdowns
- Rushing yardsJaziun Patterson72 rushing yards
Northwestern
Analysis
Michigan State
- Michigan State had lost 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
- Michigan State was 1.3 points a game under the closing line this season, 83rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+4.5 against the line this game.
Northwestern
- Northwestern had beaten 5 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
- Northwestern had won 7 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
- Northwestern was 13.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 5th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−4.5 against the line this game.
The series
- Michigan State leads the series 41–20 since 1905.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Michigan State was 2–2 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Covered.
- Against a ranked opponent, Michigan State’s pass attempts were 11.2 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.1 over expected.
- In a conference game, Michigan State’s points allowed were 9.9 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.5 under expected.
- At home, Michigan State’s third-down conversion rate were 10.5% over expected in 4 games. A +17.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 17 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 17.7% under expected.
- On the road, Northwestern’s rushing yards were 123.3 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 50.0 under expected.
- Against an unranked opponent, Northwestern’s pass attempts were 9.0 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.9 over expected.
- In a conference game, Northwestern’s rushing yards were 69.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 50.0 under expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | at Michigan State | Northwestern 24, Michigan State 21 |
| Sep 3, 2021 | at Northwestern | Michigan State 38, Northwestern 21 |
| Nov 28, 2020 | at Michigan State | Michigan State 29, Northwestern 20 |
| Sep 21, 2019 | at Northwestern | Michigan State 31, Northwestern 10 |
| Oct 6, 2018 | at Michigan State | Northwestern 29, Michigan State 19 |
| Oct 28, 2017 | at Northwestern | Northwestern 39, Michigan State 31 |
| Oct 15, 2016 | at Michigan State | Northwestern 54, Michigan State 40 |
| Nov 23, 2013 | at Northwestern | Michigan State 30, Northwestern 6 |
| Nov 17, 2012 | at Michigan State | Northwestern 23, Michigan State 20 |
| Nov 26, 2011 | at Northwestern | Michigan State 31, Northwestern 17 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 16, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.