Putting Up Numbers· college football

Iowa @ Northwestern

Sat, Nov 7 · Ryan Field · No. 21 at unranked

The line has it Northwestern 24, Iowa 22.Northwestern −2.5, total 45.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Iowa at Northwestern: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameIowa8 gamesNorthwestern8 games
−0.6+7.2
−10.5−6.2
−7+58
−62+4
−0.4+0.8
+5.2+30.7
+0.4%+8.4%
+1.1−0.5
−15.8−4.1
−0.2+0.5
−0.1−0.7

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Northwestern

  • Northwestern’s rushing yards are 100.6 higher at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 1st of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →
  • Northwestern has won 8 straight at home.streakthe runs →
  • Northwestern is 9.0 points a game over the closing line this season, 7th of 136, and 13.6 better at home than away over its last 25, 3rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Iowa

  • Iowa is 6.8 points a game over the closing line this season, 15th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

  • Iowa leads the series 55–28–3 since 1897. Iowa has won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Northwestern has covered 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
  • Northwestern has won 7 of its last 10.countits form →
  • Northwestern is 3–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
  • Against a ranked opponent, Northwestern’s rushing yards are 123.3 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • At night, Northwestern’s carries are 10.7 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • At home, Northwestern’s pass attempts are 7.7 under expected in 4 games. A −13.4 difference in pass attempts over expected at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 3 times in 100.thinthe split →
  • Iowa has beaten 9 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →
  • Iowa has won 8 of its last 10.countits form →
  • Iowa has covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →
  • Without Hank Brown, Iowa’s rushing yards are 146.6 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
  • Without Kamari Moulton, Iowa’s points of margin are 34.5 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
  • Without Nathan McNeil, Iowa’s carries are 5.3 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 26, 2024at IowaIowa 40, Northwestern 14
Nov 4, 2023neutralIowa 10, Northwestern 7
Oct 29, 2022at IowaIowa 33, Northwestern 13
Nov 6, 2021at NorthwesternIowa 17, Northwestern 12
Oct 31, 2020at IowaNorthwestern 21, Iowa 20
Oct 26, 2019at NorthwesternIowa 20, Northwestern 0
Nov 10, 2018at IowaNorthwestern 14, Iowa 10
Oct 21, 2017at NorthwesternNorthwestern 17, Iowa 10
Oct 1, 2016at IowaNorthwestern 38, Iowa 31
Oct 17, 2015at NorthwesternIowa 40, Northwestern 10

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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