Putting Up Numbers· college football

North Carolina @ Duke

Sat, Oct 17, 2026

North Carolina 24, Duke 20Duke was favored by 3, and North Carolina covered.

North Carolina at Duke: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameNorth Carolina1 gameDuke1 game
Points+7.7−8.1
Points allowed−11.4+1.7
Total offense, yards+7−36
Total defense, yards−42−4
Touchdowns+1.1−2.5
Passer rating+9.1−22.7
Third downs−0.6%+2.9%
Sacks0.0−0.5
Penalty yards+2.5+12.9
Turnovers forced−0.2+0.8
Turnovers lost+0.8−0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Duke

North Carolina

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Duke

  • Duke had covered 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • Duke had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • Duke was 7.7 points a game over the closing line this season, 15th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−7.0 against the line this game.

North Carolina

  • North Carolina was 4.2 points a game over the closing line this season, 38th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+7.0 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • Duke had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Duke had beaten 8 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Duke was 3–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • At home, Duke’s carries were 12.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.7 under expected.
  • In a conference game, Duke’s third-down conversion rate were 7.9% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.1% over expected.
  • North Carolina was 3–1 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Covered.
  • On the road, North Carolina’s third-down conversion rate were 8.3% under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.9% under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 17, 2026at DukeNorth Carolina 24, Duke 20
Nov 22, 2025at North CarolinaDuke 32, North Carolina 25
Sep 28, 2024at DukeDuke 21, North Carolina 20
Nov 11, 2023at North CarolinaNorth Carolina 47, Duke 45
Oct 15, 2022at DukeNorth Carolina 38, Duke 35
Oct 2, 2021at North CarolinaNorth Carolina 38, Duke 7
Nov 7, 2020at DukeNorth Carolina 56, Duke 24
Oct 26, 2019at North CarolinaNorth Carolina 20, Duke 17
Nov 10, 2018at DukeDuke 42, North Carolina 35
Sep 23, 2017at North CarolinaDuke 27, North Carolina 17

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 16, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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