Navy @ 
UTSA
UTSA 38, Navy 34UTSA was favored by 6, and Navy covered.
| a game | Navy1 game | UTSA1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | +9.6 | +6.3 |
| Points allowed | +7.1 | +11.3 |
| Total offense, yards | +119 | +77 |
| Total defense, yards | +72 | +116 |
| Touchdowns | +2.3 | +1.2 |
| Passer rating | +199.5 | +31.2 |
| Third downs | +7.2% | −7.0% |
| Sacks | +1.5 | −1.9 |
| Penalty yards | +13.1 | +6.6 |
| Turnovers forced | −1.2 | −1.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −1.3 | −1.1 |
Who put up numbers
UTSA
- Passing yardsOwen McCown359 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsOwen McCown3 passing touchdowns
- Rushing yardsWill Henderson III78 rushing yards
Navy
Analysis
UTSA
- UTSA’s points were 23.3 higher at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 1st of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 7.4 over expected.
- UTSA had beaten 6 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 7.
- UTSA was 0.7 points a game over the closing line this season, 64th of 136, and 17.7 better at home than away over its last 25, 1st of 136.fact · rankedits form →−2.0 against the line this game.
Navy
- Navy had won 8 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
- Navy was 4.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 110th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+2.0 against the line this game.
The series
- UTSA leads the series 1–0 since 2026.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- UTSA had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
- UTSA had won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
- UTSA had covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- UTSA was 2–1–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
- At home, UTSA’s third-down conversion rate were 16.6% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.9% under expected.
- In a conference game, UTSA’s carries were 6.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.2 under expected.
- On the road, Navy’s third-down conversion rate were 14.5% under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.2% over expected.
- In a conference game, Navy’s carries were 6.6 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.2 over expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | at UTSA | UTSA 38, Navy 34 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 16, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.