Alabama @ Tennessee

Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · No. 6 at No. 14

Tennessee 26, Alabama 10Alabama was favored by 8, and Tennessee covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Tennessee had won 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Tennessee had beaten 5 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Tennessee was 0.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 65th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+24.0 against the line this game.

Alabama had won 7 straight on the road.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Alabama had beaten 10 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Alabama was 10.8 points a game over the closing line this season, 8th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−24.0 against the line this game.

Alabama leads the series 60–41–6 since 1903. Tennessee has won 3 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

Tennessee had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Against a ranked opponent, Tennessee’s rushing yards were 89.4 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 12.2 over expected.
At home, Tennessee’s penalty yards were 24.8 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 7.3 over expected.
In a conference game, Tennessee’s third-down conversion rate were 12.9% under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 7.1% over expected.
Alabama had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
Alabama was 4–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
On the road, Alabama’s points were 21.2 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 22.2 under expected.
Against a ranked opponent, Alabama’s third-down conversion rate were 16.8% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 24.8% under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 16, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.