Putting Up Numbers· college football

Alabama @ LSU

Sat, Nov 7 · Tiger Stadium · No. 9 at No. 15

The line has it LSU 29, Alabama 24.LSU −5.5, total 52.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Alabama at LSU: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameAlabama8 gamesLSU8 games
+14.0+12.0
−7.1−11.1
+51+114
−51−110
+1.5+1.8
+29.6+21.0
+5.4%+12.0%
+0.3+1.9
−5.6−4.3
+1.0−0.1
+0.2+0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

LSU

  • LSU has won 7 straight at home.streakthe runs →
  • LSU is 6.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 18th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Alabama

  • Alabama has beaten 11 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →
  • Alabama is 4.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 23rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

  • Alabama leads the series 58–26–5 since 1902. Alabama has won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • LSU is 4–4 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
  • Since Jayce Brown’s last game, LSU’s carries are 6.4 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
  • Without Caden Durham, LSU’s penalty yards are 19.2 under expected in 4 games. A −40.4 difference in penalty yards over expected without Caden Durham vs with Caden Durham is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were without Caden Durham and it comes up 8 times in 100.thinwithout him →
  • Against a top-10 opponent, LSU’s passing yards are 148.7 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • Alabama has won 7 of its last 10.countits form →
  • Alabama has won 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →
  • Since EJ Crowell’s last game, Alabama’s rushing yards are 109.1 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
  • Without Kevin Riley, Alabama’s points of margin are 16.5 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
  • On the road, Alabama’s pass attempts are 5.4 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Nov 8, 2025at AlabamaAlabama 20, LSU 9
Nov 9, 2024at LSUAlabama 42, LSU 13
Nov 4, 2023at AlabamaAlabama 42, LSU 28
Nov 5, 2022at LSULSU 32, Alabama 31
Nov 6, 2021at AlabamaAlabama 20, LSU 14
Dec 5, 2020at LSUAlabama 55, LSU 17
Nov 9, 2019at AlabamaLSU 46, Alabama 41
Nov 3, 2018at LSUAlabama 29, LSU 0
Nov 4, 2017at AlabamaAlabama 24, LSU 10
Nov 5, 2016at LSUAlabama 10, LSU 0

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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