Putting Up Numbers· college football

Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston

Wed, Oct 14, 2026

Western Kentucky 16, Sam Houston 3Western Kentucky was favored by 1.5, and Western Kentucky covered.

Western Kentucky at Sam Houston: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameWestern Kentucky1 gameSam Houston1 game
Points−9.5−33.0
Points allowed−19.9−3.8
Total offense, yards−87−256
Total defense, yards−182−77
Touchdowns−2.3−4.4
Passer rating−40.5−82.6
Third downs+2.8%−23.9%
Sacks+0.4−0.4
Penalty yards−23.8+47.0
Turnovers forced−0.2−1.2
Turnovers lost−1.2−0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Sam Houston

Western Kentucky

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Sam Houston

  • Sam Houston was 7.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 17th of 136, and 11.6 better at home than away over its last 25, 10th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−11.5 against the line this game.

Western Kentucky

  • Western Kentucky had covered 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • Western Kentucky had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • Western Kentucky was 5.1 points a game under the closing line this season, 112th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+11.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • Western Kentucky leads the series 4–0 since 2023. Western Kentucky has won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Sam Houston had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Sam Houston had won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Sam Houston was 2–2 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • At home, Sam Houston’s passing yards were 99.6 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 137.0 under expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Sam Houston’s passing yards were 60.5 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 137.0 under expected.
  • In a conference game, Sam Houston’s passing yards were 51.0 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 137.0 under expected.
  • In a conference game, Western Kentucky’s passing yards were 66.8 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 66.2 under expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Western Kentucky’s pass attempts were 5.7 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.5 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 14, 2026at Sam HoustonWestern Kentucky 16, Sam Houston 3
Aug 23, 2025at Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky 41, Sam Houston 24
Oct 16, 2024at Sam HoustonWestern Kentucky 31, Sam Houston 14
Nov 18, 2023at Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky 28, Sam Houston 23

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 13, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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