Kennesaw State @ 
Missouri State
Missouri State 24, Kennesaw State 21Kennesaw State was favored by 2.5, and Missouri State covered.
| a game | Kennesaw State1 game | Missouri State1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | −8.5 | −5.5 |
| Points allowed | −1.6 | +0.5 |
| Total offense, yards | −80 | +13 |
| Total defense, yards | +60 | +1 |
| Touchdowns | −0.6 | −1.4 |
| Passer rating | +6.2 | +10.3 |
| Third downs | −15.0% | +8.2% |
| Sacks | −1.1 | −0.8 |
| Penalty yards | +35.3 | +26.7 |
| Turnovers forced | −0.2 | −1.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −1.2 | −0.2 |
Who put up numbers
Missouri State
- Passing yardsHenry Belin IV300 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsHenry Belin IV2 passing touchdowns
- Rushing yardsConnor Lair65 rushing yards
Kennesaw State
Analysis
Missouri State
- Missouri State was 0.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 64th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+5.5 against the line this game.
Kennesaw State
- Kennesaw State had covered 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- Kennesaw State had lost 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
- Kennesaw State was 2.2 points a game over the closing line this season, 52nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →−5.5 against the line this game.
The series
- The series is tied 1–1 since 2025.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Missouri State had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- In a conference game, Missouri State’s pass attempts were 11.5 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 8.1 over expected.
- At home, Missouri State’s penalty yards were 34.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 24.5 over expected.
- At night, Missouri State’s third-down conversion rate were 15.1% under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.8% over expected.
- Kennesaw State had covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- In a conference game, Kennesaw State’s penalty yards were 79.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 32.5 over expected.
- On the road, Kennesaw State’s third-down conversion rate were 12.5% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 15.3% under expected.
- Against an unranked opponent, Kennesaw State’s penalty yards were 14.4 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 32.5 over expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | at Missouri State | Missouri State 24, Kennesaw State 21 |
| Nov 22, 2025 | at Kennesaw State | Kennesaw State 41, Missouri State 34 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 13, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.