USC @ 
Penn State
USC 31, Penn State 23USC was favored by 0.5, and USC covered.
| a game | USC1 game | Penn State1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | +12.0 | −5.7 |
| Points allowed | −6.0 | +4.5 |
| Total offense, yards | +130 | −15 |
| Total defense, yards | −38 | +51 |
| Touchdowns | +1.9 | −1.3 |
| Passer rating | +54.1 | +11.3 |
| Third downs | +12.3% | −22.9% |
| Sacks | +0.3 | −0.9 |
| Penalty yards | −30.2 | −33.5 |
| Turnovers forced | −0.2 | −1.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −1.4 | −0.1 |
Who put up numbers
Penn State
- Passing yardsRocco Becht289 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsRocco Becht1 passing touchdown
- Rushing yardsCarson Hansen28 rushing yards
USC
Analysis
Penn State
- Penn State was 3.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 100th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−7.5 against the line this game.
USC
- USC’s pass attempts were 10.3 higher vs a ranked opponent than vs an unranked opponent against expected over its last 25 games, 1st of 78 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 2.3 over expected.
- USC had failed to cover 4 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- USC had beaten 5 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
- USC was 7.3 points a game under the closing line this season, 120th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+7.5 against the line this game.
The series
- USC leads the series 7–5 since 1922.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Penn State had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- In a conference game, Penn State’s total yards were 102.8 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 17.0 under expected.
- At home, Penn State’s points were 12.6 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.2 under expected.
- USC had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- USC was 1–4 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
- At night, USC’s third-down conversion rate were 25.3% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.2% over expected.
- On the road, USC’s points allowed were 11.6 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.2 under expected.
- In a conference game, USC’s points allowed were 8.9 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.2 under expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | at Penn State | USC 31, Penn State 23 |
| Oct 12, 2024 | at USC | Penn State 33, USC 30 |
| Jan 2, 2017 | neutral | USC 52, Penn State 49 |
| Jan 1, 2009 | neutral | USC 38, Penn State 24 |
| Aug 27, 2000 | neutral | USC 29, Penn State 5 |
| Aug 25, 1996 | neutral | Penn State 24, USC 7 |
| Sep 10, 1994 | at Penn State | Penn State 38, USC 14 |
| Sep 11, 1993 | at Penn State | Penn State 21, USC 20 |
| Sep 14, 1991 | at USC | USC 21, Penn State 10 |
| Sep 15, 1990 | at USC | USC 19, Penn State 14 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 9, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.